Faust on the Midway: A Story about Climate & Risk

You are walking through the midway of a country fair and a table with a carny attracts your attention with a sign that says, “Win a Thousand Dollars.” You ask how to win the money and he explains that you pay $10, roll two dice, and if it comes out a 7 or 11, you win the money.

You do the math quickly (you’re good at this) and figure that there are 36 possible rolls of the dice and 8 ways to get a 7 or 11, which means that your odds of winning are pretty good, about 22%. You figure that you don’t have much to lose, so you agree and start to take…